Billi, Carole and Tracey Up

The furry guy has spoken. Charley escapes again. Billi, Carole and Tracey are up for the chop.
Billi goes by a mile, unless.............................

Highlights. Sunday 24th June

The housemates are left shocked as Seany is evicted
Ziggy and Chanelle request some alone time from Big Brother
After winning the Knobbly Knees contest, Brian and Charley are rewarded with a holiday - in a caravan in the garden.

Full Details Here


Just a quick word on the Eviction of Seany. I have the bruises from all the poking I had to endure from some on betfair after my tip Carole unfortunately didn't come off
...but given the same vibes I was picking up on the C4 forum and the price available on Carole, I'd do the same again. Didn't come off this time, but marathon/ tortoise/ Bez, etc, etc

Carole an Outstanding Bet at 7/1

From the polls and the general feeling on the forums, I'll stick my head on the block and say Carole, the outsider of 3 with the bookies, will be evicted tonight. The momentum is with her ...and plenty of my money.

I've conducted 3 Eviction polls this week on the C4 forum after each Highlights show . Here are the results.

Tuesday.
26% Carole
30% Jonathan
45% Seany

Wednesday.
32% Carole
24% Jonathan
43% Seany

Thursday.
41% Carole
27% Jonathan
32% Seany

So why is Carole now leading my poll, when in most other polls Seany still has an 8% + lead.
Well 2 possible options.
The most likely is that opinion has changed. Carole has been a misery all week and been shown as such on the Highlights show every night since Tuesday.
Seany however has developed a cult like status amongst forum members and hopefully viewers too.
This is probably down to him gently pushing Big Brother Baddie, Charley, into the pool at the very end of last nights show.
I'm also of the strong opinion that the Producers would prefer to save Seany ahead of Carole.
He brings much more to the show, which in turn leads to an all important increase in the ratings.
It's always good to have the Production team on your side in these close eviction battles.

The other option is that my poll has been manipulated by 'evil ner' do well's' from the betfair forum, where I regularly post.
Well done and good work lads if you have, but I doubt it. Poke me with a virtual stick and laugh at me if I'm wrong.

So I'd suggest you have a nice bet on Carole to leave tonight. 7/1 with Paddy Power. Slightly better odds on betfair

Eviction Update

It looks a real 3 way battle this week, looking at the latest polls.

DS latest.

Carole 33% (165)
Jonathan 25.4% (127)
Seany 41.6% (208)

(500 votes so far)

C4 Poll (post highlights)

Carole 26% (67)
Jonathan 30% (77)
Seany 44% (115)

(259 votes counted so far)

Seany still a worthy favourite to go..........but it's surely going to be down to the next 3 highlights shows.

Lucky Escape for Charley

CAROLE, JONATHAN AND SEÁNY FACE EVICTION ON FRIDAY
Yesterday, all 15 housemates went into the Diary Room to individually nominate the two housemates they most want evicted from the house this week.
For the first time this series, all of the housemates were entitled to vote, including the four new additions Billi, Brian, Jonathan and Liam.

Carole, Jonathan and Seány received five nominations each and therefore face eviction via the public vote on Friday 22 June. Charley and Nicky both received four nominations each, Tracey received three, Liam two and Brian and Laura both received one each.

Jonathan, Carole and Seany up for Eviction

According to the furry guy on the DS forum.

Looks like Jonathan could be a goner.


Update -

Eviction Poll on C4 forum suggests Seany will go.

59% seany, 24% Carole , 17 % Jonathan

That will take alot of turning round.

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2nd Eviction.

Charley is odds on yet again to go this week.
With all the HM's in the Big Brother house nominating this week she is more likely to be up, but I'd still suggest laying her on betfair if she drops below 1.8.

Of the others I reckon Laura could be in danger and Ziggy and Chanelle.
If I didn't have the feeling that the Producers wanted to keep the latter two in to see how their 'relationship' pans out then I'd certainly suggest a nice bet on both of them.

Full odds here

With Laura only around 8/1 and Ziggy 16/1, it could be worth a small bet on Chanelle at 33/1 just for the hell of it. (over 40/1 on betfair)
An outside chance of going, but not impossible.

Early Thoughts on the New Men

Biographies here

Billi - Bit or a girly type guy. Even has a girly name, Billi with an 'i'. What's that all about?
Could be more arguments over the tongs and make-up, me thinks
25/1 no-hoper

Brian - Seems like 'Frank Brunos' slightly smarter, younger brother and we all know how loved Frank was by the British Public. First impressions are positive , but his Mum saying he has tantrums if he doesn't get his own way sends the alarm bells ringing in my head.
10/1 , seems too short at this stage.

Liam - Down to earth, boy next door, good looking, relatively smart and articulate, northern lad with a hint of shyness about him. Ticks every box on first look. Teenage girls and their Mums will love him. Certainly comes across as more likeable at this early stage than previous Northern lad, boy nextdoor winner in Anthony.
7/1 Looks a reasonable bet at the odds.

Jonathan - Much less arrogant and likeable than I thought he would be. Quite sharp and witty at times. Bit of a poor mans Lesley (what a star) . Surely the millionaire thing will be a severe negative against him, but could be worth a small bet on betfair at the price with the hope of trading out at a lower price
33/1

Overall Liam looks a potential winner to me. He's big enough character to pick up enough votes in the final vote without being one of the really 'big characters' .
The 'big characters' tend to have too many negatives on top of the positives, to survive until the final vote and are kicked out when the public get the opportunity to do so.

Of the front runners, Zippy. Chanelle, Gerry and Seany all fall in to this category.

Leaving one of Liam or Tracey looking the most likely winners to me at the moment.

Eviction Night.... atlast

All looks set for the 1st Eviction from the Big Brother house actually happening tonight and hopefully a nice pay out from the bookies for those who backed Shabby to go and laid Charley at odds on.

This won't be Shabbys first eviction though.
She also auditioned for ITV's 'Britains Got Talent' . Unfortunately shabby showed very little and was 'evicted' immediately.

'Warning. This Video contains images of Simon Cowell and Piers Morgan that some viewers may find disturbing'




Great moves Shabbs

Four New Men ?

There's a strong rumour that four men will enter the Big Brother house tomorrow.

Not keen on the hair.

Details here

Could really shake up the house and the betting.














Thanks Kitten. Extra sardines for you tonight


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Shabby by a Mile.

Looks like we might at last have the First Eviction tomorrow.

All the polls suggest that Shabnam will go. Currently polling between 60 and 80%.

No wonder the Bookies have her at 1/33.

Hope some people backed her at the 4/1 on offer earlier and also layed Charley at odds on, on the exchanges.

Just a pity Emily was ejected and Nicky escaped nomination.

It's Wednesday. It must be Poll Day

I've decided that every Wednesday I'll take a look at a few polls.
As Peter Snow always says on Election nights, 'It's just a bit of fun', but hopefully it will give a rough gauge of public opinion, or more correctly internet Big Brother junkie opinion.

The 3 polls I've gone for are one I did myself on the C4 forum on Sunday and Monday, The Tvpolls survey and the one on Digital Spy

I put the Twins as one choice as God knows which ones which.

First, Second, Third

C4 Forum

The Twins 19%
Carole 5%
Chanelle 26%
Charley 3%
Gerry 6%
Laura 3%
Nicky 4%
Seany 0 %
Shabby 4%
Tracey 18%
Zippy 12 %

248 votes

TV polls

The Twins 9%
Carole 9%
Chanelle 19%
Charley 2%
Gerry 7%
Laura 13%
Nicky 3%
Seany 4%
Shabby 2%
Tracey 22%
Zippy 10%

180 votes

DS Poll

The Twins 12%
Carole 6%
Chanelle 17%
Charley 5%
Gerry 14%
Laura 3%
Seany 2%
Shabby 5%
Tracey 13 %
Zippy 12%

Votes 1402

So 2 of the top 3 in the betting , Tracey and Chanelle, are doing well in all 3 polls.
Latest betting here
Gerry is only really showing up well in the DS poll, but it's early days for him and I could see it swinging either way for him, no pun intended after his comments about wanting to bed Ziggy and The Twins.
He's obviously an intelligent, socialable guy, but a bit too much of a gameplayer for me. The viewers will start to see this in the weeks to come and in general those who are seen as 'players' tend to come to a sticky end on these shows. No pun intended, again

Nominations

It looks like it's Shabby v Carole v Tracey, up for eviction...... from a very good source

First Eviction Update (Part 27)

Gerry and Seany have made they're decision and have plumped for the vacuous twins to nominate with them.

Looks good for the bet on Nicky as there's a strong chance that they'll both nominate her

First Eviction Update (Part 10)

After detailing why I thought Nicky would be up and who would nominate her, Big Brother in it's wisdom decides to have yet another nominations twist. Yawn, Yawn.
What the hell was wrong with the old method. Certainly the overwhelming majority of posts on the forums are in favour of having the normal nomination method of each HM choosing 2 names.

But no, Gerry and Seany will pick 2 others HM's to nominate with them and they will be the only 4 allowed to nominate this week.
It's not yet clear whether the 4 will nominate as a group or as individuals.
Gerry and Seany are making their choices of who will also nominate this week now.

My tip, Nicky is around 8/1 now and I still feel she has a good chance of going

Further update to follow, no doubt

Two New Men. Lesley Walks

So after Emily being removed and denying us the opportunity of a nice pay day, Lesley walks out with our money in her back pocket and leaving the show much diminished in terms of entertainment.

When it comes to making money on these shows, you have to look at it as a marathon, not a sprint, the tortoise, not the hare, bez, not kenzie. So keep the faith.

On to the other main development in the house. The arrival of Spiral with a wig and the sex obsessed Gerry. He could make Leah look like Mary Poppins.

Full Biographies here

If attending the Micheal Jackson trial to offer his support is not reason enough to not back him, he also thought it would be a great laugh to pull the duvet off lesley while she was asleep at 4am in the morning. Complete twit. Currently 25/1.

Gerry seems rather more interesting but has a tendency to turn every conversation into one about sex. I reckon the viewers and fellow Big Brother HM's will find this as tiresome as they did with leah last year. Currently 9/1.


I'm happy to stick with Tracey for now, unless and until someone better enters the house.
She's not a self obsessed, vain, argumentative, lazy, brain dead wannabe type, like most of them in there, but is level headed, laid back and knows how to clean a mug and make a bed.

Now around 8/1.


Just a quick word on laura. Having initially looked like a down to earth, likeable type, similar to past winners of Big Brother, She is now coming across as a rather lazy, misery guts and has drifted badly in the betting because of this.
She's also now polling very poorly in most of the main polls having been a clear leader in the 1st week.
Best to cut your losses and and lay her off, if you have backed her and re-assess the situation later.

Full details on betting on the exchanges, including laying here

Lesley Threatening to Walk

Just been announced on BBLB that Lesley was in the Diary Room today asking to leave.
They've asked her to sleep on it and see how she feels tomorrow. Hopefully for our bet and for the sake of the show she'll stay the course, but probably best not back her, if you haven't already, until things become clearer.

First Eviction. Second Time Around.

It's time to take a look at who's likely to be packing their bags next Friday, after the cancellation of tonight's Eviction due to Emily being thrown out and with it our chance to land a nice gamble.

If you took the 4/1 on Shabby. then that's still looking OK. Now around 2/1, but are there any other stand out bets.
Well the one for me is Nicky at 18/1 , currently available at Paddy Power

Although she's not one of my least favourite HM's in the Big Brother house she seems very likely to be up for eviction next week from what I've seen.
She's very confrontational, not in an aggressive and slightly mad way, as with Charley, but she's certainly made plenty on enemies in the house.
She had a large falling out with Zippy last night over a glass of beer which will undoubtedly feature on tonight's highlights package.
As Zippy and Chanelle are an 'item' now, I suspect that's two votes.
I could also see the Twins both nominating her, they seem to have very little to do with her from my observations and the two older HM's in Carole and Lesley are also probable nominators
As well as being confrontational, Nicky also likes to be in control and take charge. This will surely cause friction between herself and Carole and Lesley.

I also reckon Chanelle and or Zippy have a good chance of being up next week, but at the prices Nicky looks the bet

Two More Go In Tonight

Channel 4 have released teasers of the new male housemates...

- One of the two housemates is teetotal

- One visited Hilary Clinton at the White house and wrote her a poem.

The two boys will enter the house tonight at 10:30pm

Emily Gone ?

Looks like Emily has left the Big Brother house. She was called to the DR at just after 3am last night and has yet to emerge.

The eviction vote has now been suspended

Lesley Starting to Impress

I've re-assessed my opinion of Lesley. Having thought she was too old and lacked the warmth to go very far in this years Big Brother house, to my great surprise I'm beginning to really like her and she now looks worth a small bet at around 28/1. (Best price at betfair)
She's clearly the most intelligent HM (not saying a lot) and has a sharp wit. This was fully on show in last nights highlights.
She seems to have a lot more going for her than Carole and is three times the price.

An update on the other two recommendations, Tracey and Laura.

Still very happy with Tracey, but I'm starting to have concerns about whether Laura has enough to win and I wouldn't advice backing her if you haven't already (can't win them all, although she's not a no-hoper)

Bad Show for Emily

Tonights show dosen't look good for Emily

Spoiler Here

Emily v Shabnam

Quite a result for us at 10.15 this morning when the nominations were announced.
Full story here

So who's the most likely to go. All the polls on the 4 main forums show Shabby leading

The largest lead is on the DS poll. 64% to 36%

Much Closer on a GBBF poll. 55% to 45%

The latest betting is -
Shabby 1/2 fav
Emily 2/1

(correct at 4.46pm )

If you haven't already had a bet I'd be tempted to advice a bet on Emily at the prices. The polls are by no means conclusive and it looks all down to who gets the best/worst edit in the 3 highlights shows to come.
For me they are both pretty unpleasant HM's, but Emily is in your face unpleasant, while Shabby , though clearly self obsessed and delusional, isn't confrontational.

....but who do Endemol want to stay. I'd say it's more likely that they'd want to keep Emily, precisely because she is more confrontational.

Therefore, sit tight, for now

Eviction Bets Running Total

1st Eviction. Emily - Lost 18/1 -£10
1st Eviction, Shabnam - Won 4/1 +£30
2ndEviction Carole - Lost 7/1 +£20
4th Eviction Laura - Won 20/1 + £220

Tong-gate

With Zippy about to make his nominations as I write this, hopefully we'll be sitting pretty when they're announced
It looks a distinct possibility that Emily could now be put up as well as Shabby. See previous post.
Having fallen for the obvious charms of Chanelle. Will he now do the honourable thing and nominate her main adversary after last nights falling out between her and Emily over a pair of hair tongs............story here

Lets hope so

Quick Update on 1st Eviction

Still not giving up hope on Emily to be first evictee, but feel that 4/1 Shabber (Shabnam) is too good to miss.
She was the only HM that Ziggy didn't have a good word to say about during his 'dinner dates' lastnight and dropped a large hint during his dinner with Laura that Shabber was top of his nomination list...story here
He even said to atleast two of the HM's how 'great' Charley was and that she needed to be given a chance.
He'll also be aware that Shabber will take being nominated much better than the seriously unstable Charley.
Take the 4/1 on offer at Paddy Power

What a Charley

After another long night of watching Big Brother livefeed my opinions haven't really altered on any of the HM's. They've just been confirmed.
Charley is clearly in the process of becoming one of the biggest hate figures in the history of Big Brother

What's even worse, she's so self obsessed that she appears to be totally unaware of this.
You would have thought the booing she received on the way in might have given her a clue that the arrogant and aggressive attitude she showed in her audition video, hadn't gone down to well.



How did she pass the psychological tests?
So we had another night of Charley wanting to take on all comers. I have no idea what sparked all this. Pretty sure she dosen't either.
Anyway what it means is she's a short price favourite at around evens to be the first evictee (see betfair odds below).

Although obviously a worthy favourite I'd suggests laying her if she drops much below evens.

1. Pretty obvious point, but she hasn't been nominated yet.
It's no certainty that Ziggy will put her up. Would you ?. ..then have to live with her for 3 days. Scary thought just watching. How would you feel if you were in there.

2. She's clearly verging on the edge of insanity. Could she be taken out for her own safety or the safety of others.
She could easily flip and attack someone.

3. She is nominated and walks/storms out. Another Leo Sayer, bashing her way out scenario.


More about laying for the novices, in a betting sense,.....and general information about betting on the the Exchanges later.

The Morning after the night before

So what's the fall-out after the two main developments lastnight.
Ziggy entering the house (videos below) and 'foodgate'

Ziggy -

Well on the betting front Ziggy has been made slight favourite to win at around 6/1 ......latest odds

He seems a well brought up, polite and sociable young man. Dosen't seem to have any obvious major character flaws. I'm sure his Mum is very proud of him...LOL
I wouldn't be in any rush to back him at the price. It's fairly easy for him at the moment.
Being the only man, there's obviously no need to compete for female attention.
Lets wait to see how he reacts when a few more guys go in.
Could he be just a little too smooth?
Generally though, first impressions are positive.

And an important piece of information which has a major infuence on the eviction market.
Ziggy will choose the two HM's up for eviction next week.

Ziggys Entrance, so to speak




'Foodgate' -
As expected, maybe a little earlier than I thought, the dreadful charley totally lost it lastnight over a minor disagreement about food. Full story here

Surely this means curtains for Charley, IF Ziggy puts her up for the public vote this week.
This is reflecting in the eviction market, with Charley a strong favourite at 13/8 to go.....latest odds
We're possibly clasping at straws abit with our bet on Emily to be first out, but all is not lost.
Emily was pretty transparent in her attempts to 'endear' herself to Ziggy, as soon as he entered the house.
This obviously failed as he's taken an immediate shine to wannabe Posh Spice, Chanelle...story here ..so there's still a small hope that he could put Posh Bird up for eviction and sneak off to make sweet music with 'Posh Spice'

Quickly back to the whole 'foodgate' shenanigans. Nicky has emerged extremely well out of the whole saga. There's nothing the BB forum regulars like more than a woman who stands up to a 'bully'.
Aisleyne and Seezer. Aislyene and Grace.
This is reflected in her price this morning and she's been the best backed overnight. Now around 14/1

Further updates this time tomorrow................if not sooner

One Guy going in tonight.

Seems they'll be one guy going into the house tonight and NO eviction
This comes from the same source that 1st confirmed that it would be only women going into the house on the launch night.
There were plans to evict one of the women tonight, but they have been shelved.

Another reliable source on the forums confirms the Sun story that it will be this guy..........click here


On the subject of an eviction, I'd suggest a bet on Emily being the 1st person evicted. It's always abit dodgy backing on eviction markets before the nominations are announced, but it means you do get better odds.
A small bet on Emily at 18/1 could look very good this time next week.....or whenever the 1st eviction occurs.
Ist Eviction odds here
She seems to be in the same mould as Grace. Snobby, bitchy and generally has an over-inflated view of herself.

Also on the betting theme. With plenty more men sure to follow the one tonight..and surely no more women... it could be worth having a small bet on a male winner to cover your stake. Assuming you followed my advice and have backed Laura and Tracey to win.